US new home · Median sales price in September
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 20:59:20 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above $365,000 (96.0%), Above $370,000 (95.0%), Above $375,000 (91.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Tue, 03 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $365,000 | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Above $370,000 | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above $375,000 | 91.0% | 91.0¢ | 9.0¢ |
| Above $380,000 | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| Above $385,000 | 76.0% | 76.0¢ | 24.0¢ |
| Above $390,000 | 66.0% | 66.0¢ | 34.0¢ |
| Above $395,000 | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Above $400,000 | 38.0% | 38.0¢ | 62.0¢ |
| Above $405,000 | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| Above $410,000 | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| Above $415,000 | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Above $420,000 | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above $365,000:
If the Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 is above $365,000, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS), stated in U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted.
Sources
Related markets
- NYC median asking rent in December 2026
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Housing units authorized in Vermont this year
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Fed decision in October?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.