How high will unemployment get in 2026?
As of Sat, 07 Nov 2026 00:40:54 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 4.5% (6.0%), Above 4.8% (6.0%), Above 17% (5.0%). The market has $826K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Above 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Above 17% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above 7% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Above 5.5% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Above 10% | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 12% | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 15% | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 6.5% | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 5% | 1.3% | 1.3¢ | 98.7¢ |
| Above 6% | 1.1% | 1.1¢ | 98.9¢ |
| Above 8% | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Above 9% | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Above 20% | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $826K
- Liquidity: $826K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 4.5%:
If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 4.5%, the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
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