When will the next US recession start?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 23:17:25 UTC, Kalshi traders price Q4 2024 (3.0%), Q4 2025 (3.0%), Q3 2025 (2.0%). The market has $521K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Q4 2025 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Q3 2025 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Q2 2025 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Q1 2026 | 0.2% | 0.2¢ | 99.8¢ |
| Q1 2025 | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $521K
- Liquidity: $521K
- Closes:
Sources
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