Who will switch or leave their party this year?
As of Wed, 21 Oct 2026 23:11:51 UTC, Kalshi traders price John Fetterman (12.0%), Lisa Murkowski (12.0%), Thomas Massie (5.0%). The market has $172K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Fetterman | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Lisa Murkowski | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Thomas Massie | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Don Bacon | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Henry Cuellar | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $172K
- Liquidity: $172K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for John Fetterman:
If John Fetterman leaves or announces that they are leaving the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If John Fetterman changes their official party registration from Democratic to another party or to independent/unaffiliated status, or announces they are no longer a member of the Democratic party, or is expelled from the Democratic party by official party action, then the market will resolve to Yes.
Sources
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