How many nominees will the Senate confirm in the lame duck?
As of Wed, 04 Nov 2026 11:13:40 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 10 (85.0%), At least 25 (69.0%), At least 50 (55.0%). The market has $7K in volume and closes on Sun, 04 Apr 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 10 | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| At least 25 | 69.0% | 69.0¢ | 31.0¢ |
| At least 50 | 55.0% | 55.0¢ | 45.0¢ |
| At least 75 | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
| At least 100 | 34.0% | 34.0¢ | 66.0¢ |
| At least 125 | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $7K
- Liquidity: $7K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 10:
If the number of civilian nominees confirmed by the Senate is at least 10 after Issuance and before the 119th Congress ends on Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Each person confirmed by the Senate to a civilian position counts once, including judges, ambassadors and Cabinet-level positions, whether confirmed by roll call vote, voice vote, unanimous consent or en bloc resolution. The following do NOT count: Military appointments and promotions in the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, Space Force or Coast Guard Foreign Service lists (appointments and promotions in the Foreign Service), and Public Health Service and NOAA Commissioned Corps appointments and promotions
Sources
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