How many people will serve as Speaker of the House this year?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 20:59:24 UTC, Kalshi traders price Exactly 1 (85.0%), Exactly 2 (15.0%), Exactly 3 (5.0%). The market has $7K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 1 | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| Exactly 2 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Exactly 3 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $7K
- Liquidity: $7K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Exactly 1:
If the number of people who have served as Speaker of the House during 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes. "Served in the role" means that an individual has formally held the position in an official capacity, whether by appointment, election, succession, or acting designation, and performed the duties of that role for any length of time during the time period. If an individual serves multiple non-consecutive terms in the role, they will count once for each term (allowing an individual to be counted multiple times). If an individual holds the role temporarily in an "acting" or "interim" capacity for any amount of time, or is formally designated as such, they count as serving in the role. Dual officeholders count once per person even if holding multiple titles simultaneously. If an individual is appointed but never sworn in, or withdraws before assuming office, they do not count as serving. Vacancies do not count as individuals serving. Posthumous designations or honorary titles do not count.
Sources
Related markets
- Will the SAVE Act become law?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Will the SAVE America Act become law?
- Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?
- Will the cap on gambling loss deduction be repealed?
- Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.