Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/26 - 11/1)
As of Tue, 27 Oct 2026 05:20:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price November 1 (15.0%), October 27 (15.0%), October 28 (15.0%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Tue, 03 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 1 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| October 27 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| October 28 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| October 29 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| October 30 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| October 31 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| October 26 | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for November 1:
If Nov 1, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Daily counts will be evaluated from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days.
Sources
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