US real GDP growth in 2026?

As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 20:59:17 UTC, Kalshi traders price 2.1% to 2.5% (51.0%), 1.6% to 2.0% (28.0%), 2.6% to 3.0% (13.0%). The market has $423K in volume and closes on Sun, 28 Feb 2027.

Updated: Mon, 19 Oct 2026 20:59:17 UTC

Current odds

Outcome	Chance	Yes price	No price
2.1% to 2.5%	51.0%	51.0¢	49.0¢
1.6% to 2.0%	28.0%	28.0¢	72.0¢
2.6% to 3.0%	13.0%	13.0¢	87.0¢
1.1% to 1.5%	4.0%	4.0¢	96.0¢
3.1% to 3.5%	3.0%	3.0¢	97.0¢
0.1% to 0.5%	2.0%	2.0¢	98.0¢
0.0% or Below	1.0%	1.0¢	99.0¢
0.6% to 1.0%	1.0%	1.0¢	99.0¢
3.6% to 4.0%	1.0%	1.0¢	99.0¢
4.1% to 4.5%	1.0%	1.0¢	99.0¢
4.6% to 5.0%	0.0%	0.0¢	100.0¢
5.1% to 5.5%	0.0%	0.0¢	100.0¢
5.6% to 6.0%	0.0%	0.0¢	100.0¢
6.1% or Above	0.0%	0.0¢	100.0¢

Market details

Venue: Kalshi
Volume: $423K
Liquidity: $423K
Closes: Sun, 28 Feb 2027

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 0.0% or Below:

If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is below 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered. All stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.

Sources

Source: Kalshi market

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