Will the filibuster be weakened?
As of Sat, 07 Nov 2026 03:17:27 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2030 (70.0%), Before Jul 1, 2029 (62.0%), Before Jan 20, 2029 (51.0%). The market has $170K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2030 | 70.0% | 70.0¢ | 30.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2029 | 62.0% | 62.0¢ | 38.0¢ |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 51.0% | 51.0¢ | 49.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 39.0% | 39.0¢ | 61.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 33.0% | 33.0¢ | 67.0¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 2.2% | 2.2¢ | 97.8¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $170K
- Liquidity: $170K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2030:
If there is a change in U.S. Senate rules or precedent that lowers the threshold for cloture for any legislative action whose threshold for cloture at time of Issuance is three-fifths of all Senators duly chosen and sworn before January 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Modifications to budget reconciliation rules are not encompassed and do not resolve the market to Yes. See full rules for examples.
Sources
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