ERCOT North Hub average real-time power price (November 2026)
As of Wed, 04 Nov 2026 11:13:38 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above $20/MWh (87.0%), Above $25/MWh (59.0%), Above $30/MWh (30.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $20/MWh | 87.0% | 87.0¢ | 13.0¢ |
| Above $25/MWh | 59.0% | 59.0¢ | 41.0¢ |
| Above $30/MWh | 30.0% | 30.0¢ | 70.0¢ |
| Above $35/MWh | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| Above $45/MWh | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Above $100/MWh | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above $60/MWh | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above $20/MWh:
If the all-hours average real-time power price at ERCOT North Hub is above $20/MWh in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Period: November 1, 2026 at 1:00 AM EDT to December 1, 2026 at 1:00 AM EST. Includes the start; excludes the end. Source: ERCOT’s 15-minute real-time Settlement Point Prices (NP6-905-CD). Intervals follow ERCOT’s Central-time operating days and delivery-interval conventions; repeated daylight-saving intervals count separately. Calculation: Simple average of all applicable 15-minute prices, including negative prices. Round the average to two decimals, with exact halves away from zero. Equality resolves No. Trading closes: December 1, 2026 at 12:59 AM EST. The final delivery interval still counts. Price versions: Use first published applicable prices. Later corrections count only if published before expiration and accepted by the Exchange as correcting a material error. Exclude unverified, estimated, indicative and forecast prices. Missing data: Do not fill missing prices. At expiration, average the available prices if at least 95% of required intervals are available. Below 95%, resolve only if the available data establishes the outcome regardless of missing values; otherwise, settle at the Exchange-determined last fair price under the full rules.
Sources
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