European Central Bank rate decision in December
As of Thu, 29 Oct 2026 17:12:23 UTC, Kalshi traders price Hike 1-25bps (80.0%), Maintain current rate (20.0%), Cut 1-25bps (2.0%). The market has $6K in volume and closes on Thu, 17 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 1-25bps | 80.0% | 80.0¢ | 20.0¢ |
| Maintain current rate | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
| Cut 1-25bps | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Hike more than 25bps | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Cut more than 25bps | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $6K
- Liquidity: $6K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Hike 1-25bps:
If the European Central Bank takes the action of Hike 1-25bps at December ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
Sources
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