California permitted housing units this year
As of Mon, 12 Oct 2026 20:20:12 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 100,000 (97.0%), Above 105,000 (91.0%), Above 110,000 (61.0%). The market has $72K in volume and closes on Wed, 03 Feb 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 100,000 | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 3.0¢ |
| Above 105,000 | 91.0% | 91.0¢ | 9.0¢ |
| Above 110,000 | 61.0% | 61.0¢ | 39.0¢ |
| Above 115,000 | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| Above 120,000 | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Above 125,000 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $72K
- Liquidity: $72K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 100,000:
If California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in calendar year 2026 is above 100,000, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the calendar-year total number of housing units authorized, not the number of permit documents issued. It includes units in single-family and multifamily structures. Resolution uses the first U.S. Census Bureau state-level release containing complete January–December 2026 data; subsequent revisions do not affect resolution.
Sources
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