Which bills will become law this year?
As of Sat, 07 Nov 2026 01:45:43 UTC, Kalshi traders price Export-control chip security (39.0%), Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions (28.0%), Protect College Sports Act (17.0%). The market has $875K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export-control chip security | 39.0% | 39.0¢ | 61.0¢ |
| Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| Protect College Sports Act | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| AI-chip export licensing | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Data center utility cost protection | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| E15 year-round sales | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| ADS-B revenue-use restriction | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) | 7.9% | 7.9¢ | 92.1¢ |
| Credit-card routing competition | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Insulin cost cap | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| JAWBONE Act | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Critical-minerals stockpile | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Film/TV production expensing | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| FAKES | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $875K
- Liquidity: $875K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Export-control chip security:
If legislation that requires location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification: 'FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)' (KXBILLS-FISA) resolves to Yes only if FISA Section 702 is reauthorized for exactly two years, as in the provided example (Public Law 118-49). A reauthorization for any other duration would not qualify. Clarification: To be clear, legislation that appropriates funds for security adjustments and upgrades relating to the East Wing Modernization Project, a project that includes the construction of a presidential ballroom, constitutes legislation that "authorizes funding for construction of a presidential ballroom," even if the funds are restricted to security elements of that construction.
Sources
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