What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 10:26:51 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 2000 (96.0%), At least 2500 (93.0%), At least 3000 (90.0%). The market has $206K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 2000 | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| At least 2500 | 93.0% | 93.0¢ | 7.0¢ |
| At least 3000 | 90.0% | 90.0¢ | 10.0¢ |
| At least 3500 | 82.0% | 82.0¢ | 18.0¢ |
| At least 4000 | 75.0% | 75.0¢ | 25.0¢ |
| At least 4500 | 67.0% | 67.0¢ | 33.0¢ |
| At least 5000 | 54.0% | 54.0¢ | 46.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $206K
- Liquidity: $206K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 2000:
If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 2000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
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