When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law?

As of Sat, 17 Oct 2026 09:05:07 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2028 (38.0%), Before Jul 1, 2027 (24.0%), Before Jan 1, 2027 (5.0%). The market has $5K in volume and closes on Fri, 07 Jan 2028.

Updated: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 09:05:07 UTC

Current odds

Market details

• Venue: Kalshi
• Volume: $5K
• Liquidity: $5K
• Closes: Fri, 07 Jan 2028

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2028:

If federal legislation requiring independent AI safety evaluations or audits has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A qualifying federal law must require a safety evaluation or audit of AI models, systems, or safety practices by an evaluator independent of the entity being reviewed. Government evaluators and independent outside organizations qualify. The review must substantively assess safety risks, testing, safeguards, or risk management; disclosure paperwork or self-attestation alone does not qualify. The law may cover a defined class of models or entities and may delegate technical standards to an agency. Self-assessments, voluntary programs, studies, and reviews limited to privacy, fairness, or transparency without a safety component do not qualify. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is the FRONTIER Act (H.R. 9925).

Sources

• Source: Kalshi market

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