Who will have a #1 hit this year?
As of Sat, 07 Nov 2026 00:18:46 UTC, Kalshi traders price Mariah Carey (90.0%), Future (27.0%), Morgan Wallen (19.0%). The market has $473K in volume and closes on Sat, 26 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariah Carey | 90.0% | 90.0¢ | 10.0¢ |
| Future | 27.0% | 27.0¢ | 73.0¢ |
| Morgan Wallen | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| Frank Ocean | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| Travis Scott | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Tate McRae | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Post Malone | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Beyoncé | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Kendrick Lamar | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Lady Gaga | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Don Toliver | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| The Weeknd | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Nicki Minaj | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Olivia Dean | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $473K
- Liquidity: $473K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Mariah Carey:
If Mariah Carey has a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (including features), by the Billboard issue for the week of Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Billboard. Any references to "Billboard", the "Hot 100," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Billboard and Kalshi. For the purposes of this market, the last Billboard chart that will be included is the one published for Dec 26, 2026.
Sources
Related markets
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- Who will have a top 20 song this year?
- Top U.S. Selling Vinyl Album: 2026
- Top Artist on Spotify U.S. 2026
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