Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? — odds by venue
| Outcome | Polymarket | Limitless | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.1% | 3% | 2.1% on Polymarket |
Venues
- Polymarket: Volume $38.1K · Liquidity $414.6K
- Limitless: Volume $11.5K · Liquidity —
Resolution rules
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting w…
Limitless
<p>This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".</p><p>Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.</p><p>The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible…