Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:35:27 UTC, Limitless traders price Yes (2.3%). The market has $11K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.3% | 2.3¢ | 97.8¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Limitless
- Volume: $11K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
<p>This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".</p><p>Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.</p><p>The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.</p>
Sources
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