Which New York City restaurants move from one Michelin star to two or more this year?
As of Wed, 28 Oct 2026 15:03:46 UTC, Kalshi traders price Semma (50.0%), The Four Horsemen (50.0%), Le Coucou (50.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Mon, 14 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Semma | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| The Four Horsemen | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Le Coucou | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Yoshino | 47.0% | 47.0¢ | 53.0¢ |
| Torrisi | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
| Frevo | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Semma:
If Semma has gained Michelin stars in the 2026 annual Michelin Guide compared with the prior annual edition, then the market resolves to Yes. Eligible restaurants held one star in the prior annual edition; a promotion to either two or three stars qualifies. Compare the official 2026 annual Michelin Guide with the 2025 annual edition. Use each restaurant's exact official name at the listed location; relocations are not tracked. Only the official publication for Dec 2026 is used; later revisions, retractions, and mid-year changes do not count. If a restaurant permanently closes before the new Guide is released and is not listed, its market resolves to No. Temporary closures or name changes do not count as a change unless Michelin attributes a different number of stars. Bib Gourmand, unstarred Guide inclusion, and Green Stars do not count as Michelin star gains. Each restaurant market resolves independently; multiple restaurants may resolve Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Michelin Guide. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Sources
Related markets
- World's best restaurant this year?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- Who will perform at the World Cup final halftime show?
- Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Winner
- Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.