Which New York City restaurants lose Michelin stars this year?
As of Tue, 27 Oct 2026 11:33:28 UTC, Kalshi traders price Per Se (73.0%), Masa (52.0%), Le Bernardin (50.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Mon, 14 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Per Se | 73.0% | 73.0¢ | 27.0¢ |
| Masa | 52.0% | 52.0¢ | 48.0¢ |
| Le Bernardin | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Daniel | 47.0% | 47.0¢ | 53.0¢ |
| Jean-Georges | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
| Eleven Madison Park | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Per Se:
If Per Se has lost at least one Michelin star in the 2026 annual Michelin Guide compared with the prior annual edition, then the market resolves to Yes. Eligible restaurants held at least one Michelin star in the prior annual edition. A decrease in star count, including removal from the starred listings, qualifies as a loss, subject to the permanent-closure exception below. Compare the official 2026 annual Michelin Guide with the 2025 annual edition. Use each restaurant's exact official name at the listed location; relocations are not tracked. Only the official publication for Dec 14, 2026 is used; later revisions, retractions, and mid-year changes do not count. If a restaurant permanently closes before the new Guide is released and is not listed, its market resolves to No. Temporary closures or name changes do not count as a change unless Michelin attributes a different number of stars. Only regular Michelin star counts are compared; Bib Gourmand, unstarred Guide inclusion, and Green Stars are not Michelin stars. Each restaurant market resolves independently; multiple restaurants may resolve Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Michelin Guide. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Sources
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