Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:51:12 UTC, Polymarket traders price Microsoft (11.5%), SpaceXAI (8.0%), Google (6.5%). The market has $66K in volume and closes on Sun, 01 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | 11.5% | 11.5¢ | 88.5¢ |
| SpaceXAI | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| 6.5% | 6.5¢ | 93.5¢ | |
| DeepSeek | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Meta | 3.1% | 3.1¢ | 96.9¢ |
| Z.ai | 2.8% | 2.8¢ | 97.3¢ |
| Amazon | 2.6% | 2.6¢ | 97.4¢ |
| Moonshot | 2.4% | 2.4¢ | 97.6¢ |
| Meituan | 2.1% | 2.1¢ | 97.9¢ |
| Alibaba | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| ByteDance | 1.5% | 1.5¢ | 98.5¢ |
| Mistral | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Baidu | 0.9% | 0.9¢ | 99.1¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $66K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
On September 12, 2026, Anthropic committed to giving embedded third-party evaluators permanent, ongoing, employee-level access to its AI models and training processes. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces a commitment to grant one or more third-party evaluators ongoing employee-level access to its systems, AI models, and training processes during development by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Arrangements limited to evaluating models before release will not qualify. Current agreements with the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) to provide pre-deployment access to AI models will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that endorse third-party evaluation, describe it as under consideration, or express an intention to explore or discuss it will not qualify. A commitment made as part of a broader agreement with other companies or with a government will qualify, provided the listed company is a party to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the commitment is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company;…
Sources
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