Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:58:33 UTC, Polymarket traders price Anthropic (21.0%), Mistral (6.7%), Google (6.5%). The market has $14K in volume and closes on Sun, 01 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| Mistral | 6.7% | 6.7¢ | 93.3¢ |
| 6.5% | 6.5¢ | 93.5¢ | |
| Meta | 5.1% | 5.1¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Alibaba | 4.4% | 4.4¢ | 95.6¢ |
| SpaceXAI | 3.4% | 3.4¢ | 96.7¢ |
| Moonshot | 3.2% | 3.2¢ | 96.8¢ |
| Z.ai | 2.9% | 2.9¢ | 97.0¢ |
| DeepSeek | 2.5% | 2.5¢ | 97.5¢ |
| Amazon | 2.4% | 2.4¢ | 97.7¢ |
| ByteDance | 1.8% | 1.8¢ | 98.2¢ |
| Meituan | 1.7% | 1.7¢ | 98.3¢ |
| Baidu | 1.5% | 1.5¢ | 98.5¢ |
| Microsoft | 1.5% | 1.5¢ | 98.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $14K
- Liquidity: $6K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
On August 18, 2026, OpenAI announced it had paused some frontier reinforcement learning training to meet alignment, security, and monitoring standards, and on September 1, 2026, Anthropic disclosed that it had paused some training following unauthorized actions by its models. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it has paused or will pause training of one or more of its AI models over safety, alignment, or security concerns between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, and must state that the company has paused, is pausing, or will pause training, or must disclose a pause that the company had not previously announced. The company must itself attribute the pause, at least in part, to safety, alignment, or security concerns. A pause of any duration qualifies, including a pause limited to particular models, training methods, or training environments. Statements that describe slowing development, adding review steps, or considering a pause without stating that training has been or will be paused will not qualify. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the pause is actually carried out, is later modified or withdrawn, or training later resumes. The…
Sources
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