US crude oil inventories for the week ending October 16, 2026

As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:50:25 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 410 million barrels (72.0%), Above 411 million barrels (70.0%), Above 412 million barrels (61.0%). The market has $16K in volume and closes on Wed, 28 Oct 2026.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Above 410 million barrels72.0%72.0¢28.0¢
Above 411 million barrels70.0%70.0¢30.0¢
Above 412 million barrels61.0%61.0¢39.0¢
Above 413 million barrels51.0%51.0¢49.0¢
Above 414 million barrels40.0%40.0¢60.0¢
Above 419 million barrels37.0%37.0¢63.0¢
Above 415 million barrels36.0%36.0¢64.0¢
Above 416 million barrels26.0%26.0¢74.0¢
Above 422 million barrels25.0%25.0¢75.0¢
Above 418 million barrels24.0%24.0¢76.0¢
Above 417 million barrels23.0%23.0¢77.0¢
Above 420 million barrels22.0%22.0¢78.0¢
Above 421 million barrels19.0%19.0¢81.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 410 million barrels:

If U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 16, 2026 are strictly above 410 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the U.S. Commercial Crude Oil (Excl. Lease Stock) inventory level reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the week ending Oct 16, 2026. This measure excludes crude oil held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). EIA reports the statistic in thousand barrels. Values stated in millions of barrels will be converted directly from the EIA-reported value. The market will use the first EIA publication for the specified week. Subsequent revisions will not affect resolution.

Sources

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