Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 18, 2026

As of Sat, 17 Oct 2026 22:10:34 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 49,000 MW (73.0%), Above 56,500 MW (47.0%), Above 49,500 MW (47.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Sun, 25 Oct 2026.

Updated: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 22:10:34 UTC

Current odds

Outcome	Chance	Yes price	No price
Above 49,000 MW	73.0%	73.0¢	27.0¢
Above 56,500 MW	47.0%	47.0¢	53.0¢
Above 49,500 MW	47.0%	47.0¢	53.0¢
Above 52,000 MW	33.0%	33.0¢	67.0¢
Above 51,000 MW	25.0%	25.0¢	75.0¢
Above 51,500 MW	25.0%	25.0¢	75.0¢
Above 52,500 MW	11.0%	11.0¢	89.0¢
Above 53,000 MW	6.0%	6.0¢	94.0¢
Above 53,500 MW	6.0%	6.0¢	94.0¢
Above 54,000 MW	5.0%	5.0¢	95.0¢
Above 50,000 MW	4.0%	4.0¢	96.0¢
Above 54,500 MW	2.0%	2.0¢	98.0¢
Above 55,500 MW	2.0%	2.0¢	98.0¢
Above 57,500 MW	2.0%	2.0¢	98.0¢
Above 58,000 MW	2.0%	2.0¢	98.0¢

Market details

Venue: Kalshi
Volume: $1K
Liquidity: $1K
Closes: Sun, 25 Oct 2026

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 49,000 MW:

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 17, 2026 is above 49,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for the October 17, 2026 operating day. Each value represents ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour. Instantaneous load readings displayed elsewhere by ERCOT will not be considered. Values will be compared as published without rounding. Later revisions, settlement adjustments, or republications will not affect the Expiration Value.

Sources

Source: Kalshi market

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