Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 16, 2026

As of Thu, 15 Oct 2026 10:02:11 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 72,000 MW (89.0%), Above 72,500 MW (77.0%), Above 73,000 MW (70.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Fri, 23 Oct 2026.

Updated: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 10:02:11 UTC

Current odds

Outcome	Chance	Yes price	No price
Above 72,000 MW	89.0%	89.0¢	11.0¢
Above 72,500 MW	77.0%	77.0¢	23.0¢
Above 73,000 MW	70.0%	70.0¢	30.0¢
Above 73,500 MW	53.0%	53.0¢	47.0¢
Above 74,000 MW	36.0%	36.0¢	64.0¢
Above 74,500 MW	25.0%	25.0¢	75.0¢
Above 75,000 MW	11.0%	11.0¢	89.0¢
Above 75,500 MW	11.0%	11.0¢	89.0¢
Above 76,000 MW	7.0%	7.0¢	93.0¢
Above 76,500 MW	6.0%	6.0¢	94.0¢
Above 77,500 MW	6.0%	6.0¢	94.0¢
Above 80,500 MW	6.0%	6.0¢	94.0¢
Above 77,000 MW	5.0%	5.0¢	95.0¢
Above 80,000 MW	5.0%	5.0¢	95.0¢
Above 81,000 MW	4.0%	4.0¢	96.0¢

Market details

Venue: Kalshi
Volume: $2K
Liquidity: $2K
Closes: Fri, 23 Oct 2026

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 72,000 MW:

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 15, 2026 is above 72,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for the October 15, 2026 operating day. Each value represents ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour. Instantaneous load readings displayed elsewhere by ERCOT will not be considered. Values will be compared as published without rounding. Later revisions, settlement adjustments, or republications will not affect the Expiration Value.

Sources

Source: Kalshi market

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