Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 11, 2026

As of Sat, 10 Oct 2026 22:54:12 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 70,500 MW (99.0%), Above 70,000 MW (95.0%), Above 69,500 MW (74.0%). The market has $6K in volume and closes on Sun, 18 Oct 2026.

Updated: Sat, 10 Oct 2026 22:54:12 UTC

Current odds

Outcome	Chance	Yes price	No price
Above 70,500 MW	99.0%	99.0¢	1.0¢
Above 70,000 MW	95.0%	95.0¢	5.0¢
Above 69,500 MW	74.0%	74.0¢	26.0¢
Above 71,500 MW	63.0%	63.0¢	37.0¢
Above 69,000 MW	62.0%	62.0¢	38.0¢
Above 71,000 MW	62.0%	62.0¢	38.0¢
Above 77,000 MW	37.0%	37.0¢	63.0¢
Above 77,500 MW	33.0%	33.0¢	67.0¢
Above 72,000 MW	4.0%	4.0¢	96.0¢
Above 73,500 MW	4.0%	4.0¢	96.0¢
Above 72,500 MW	3.0%	3.0¢	97.0¢
Above 74,000 MW	3.0%	3.0¢	97.0¢
Above 74,500 MW	3.0%	3.0¢	97.0¢
Above 73,000 MW	2.0%	2.0¢	98.0¢
Above 75,000 MW	2.0%	2.0¢	98.0¢

Market details

Venue: Kalshi
Volume: $6K
Liquidity: $6K
Closes: Sun, 18 Oct 2026

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 70,500 MW:

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 10, 2026 is above 70,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for the October 10, 2026 operating day. Each value represents ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour. Instantaneous load readings displayed elsewhere by ERCOT will not be considered. Values will be compared as published without rounding. Later revisions, settlement adjustments, or republications will not affect the Expiration Value.

Sources

Source: Kalshi market

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