Senate MOV Ranking: Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska
As of Tue, 03 Nov 2026 18:19:09 UTC, Polymarket traders price Other (50.0%), AK < TX < OH < KS (12.0%), AK < OH < TX < KS (11.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Tue, 03 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| AK < TX < OH < KS | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| AK < OH < TX < KS | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| TX < AK < OH < KS | 8.5% | 8.5¢ | 91.5¢ |
| OH < AK < TX < KS | 8.5% | 8.5¢ | 91.5¢ |
| TX < OH < AK < KS | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| OH < TX < AK < KS | 5.5% | 5.5¢ | 94.5¢ |
| AK < TX < KS < OH | 5.5% | 5.5¢ | 94.5¢ |
| AK < OH < KS < TX | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| AK < KS < TX < OH | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| TX < AK < KS < OH | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| AK < KS < OH < TX | 4.5% | 4.5¢ | 95.5¢ |
| KS < AK < TX < OH | 4.5% | 4.5¢ | 95.5¢ |
| KS < AK < OH < TX | 4.5% | 4.5¢ | 95.5¢ |
| KS < OH < AK < TX | 4.5% | 4.5¢ | 95.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $64K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the order of the margins of victory in the 2026 United States Senate elections in Texas, Ohio (special election), Kansas, and Alaska, ranked from lowest (closest) to highest. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the relevant round of the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two or more of these states have identical margins of victory, the tie will be broken alphabetically by state name, with the state that comes first alphabetically treated as having the smaller margin of victory. This market will resolve based on the official vote counts once the counts have been made official. If a recount is initiated before any applicable vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve…
Sources
Related markets
- Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
- Texas Senate Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
- Alaska Governor Election Winner
- Texas Governor Election Winner
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.