Next Mythos-Class Model: Humanity's Last Exam Debut?
As of Tue, 01 Sep 2026 16:12:27 UTC, Polymarket traders price 50%+ (100.0%), 45%+ (99.8%), 55%+ (0.6%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50%+ | 100.0% | 100.0¢ | 0.1¢ |
| 45%+ | 99.8% | 99.8¢ | 0.3¢ |
| 55%+ | 0.6% | 0.6¢ | 99.4¢ |
| 60%+ | 0.4% | 0.4¢ | 99.6¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $6K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Mythos-class model added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or "Fable" (e.g., Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Fable 6), or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. Anthropic's other model tiers, such as Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku, will not qualify. The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity's Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity's Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity's Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displa…
Sources
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