Next Gemini Flash Model (3.8+): Text Arena Debut?
As of Thu, 03 Sep 2026 17:44:17 UTC, Polymarket traders price 1480+ (97.9%), 1490+ (97.0%), 1500+ (1.3%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1480+ | 97.9% | 97.9¢ | 2.1¢ |
| 1490+ | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 2.9¢ |
| 1500+ | 1.3% | 1.3¢ | 98.8¢ |
| 1510+ | 0.4% | 0.4¢ | 99.7¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of…
Sources
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