Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 10:35:38 UTC, Polymarket traders price 1500+ (92.7%), 1510+ (74.0%), 1520+ (60.5%). The market has $11K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Jul 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1500+ | 92.7% | 92.7¢ | 7.3¢ |
| 1510+ | 74.0% | 74.0¢ | 26.0¢ |
| 1520+ | 60.5% | 60.5¢ | 39.5¢ |
| 1530+ | 33.5% | 33.5¢ | 66.5¢ |
| 1540+ | 16.5% | 16.5¢ | 83.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $11K
- Liquidity: $14K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same c…
Sources
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