Next Fable Model (5.2+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 07:51:09 UTC, Polymarket traders price 50%+ (99.2%), 55%+ (86.5%), 60%+ (17.5%). The market has $9K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Jul 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50%+ | 99.2% | 99.2¢ | 0.9¢ |
| 55%+ | 86.5% | 86.5¢ | 13.5¢ |
| 60%+ | 17.5% | 17.5¢ | 82.5¢ |
| 65%+ | 10.5% | 10.5¢ | 89.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $9K
- Liquidity: $10K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity's Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity's Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added…
Sources
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