Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released on...?
As of Thu, 29 Oct 2026 02:00:37 UTC, Polymarket traders price No release by November 30 (22.0%), November 8 (15.5%), November 24 (15.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| No release by November 30 | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| November 8 | 15.5% | 15.5¢ | 84.5¢ |
| November 24 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| November 12 | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| On or prior to October 31 | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| November 9 | 11.5% | 11.5¢ | 88.5¢ |
| November 30 | 11.5% | 11.5¢ | 88.5¢ |
| November 7 | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| November 16 | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| November 20 | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| November 25 | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| November 11 | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| November 4 | 10.5% | 10.5¢ | 89.5¢ |
| November 5 | 10.5% | 10.5¢ | 89.5¢ |
| November 6 | 10.5% | 10.5¢ | 89.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model (5.6+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources
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