Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 14:34:36 UTC, Polymarket traders price 1400+ (92.7%), 1420+ (84.5%), 1440+ (71.0%). The market has $22K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Jul 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1400+ | 92.7% | 92.7¢ | 7.3¢ |
| 1420+ | 84.5% | 84.5¢ | 15.5¢ |
| 1440+ | 71.0% | 71.0¢ | 29.0¢ |
| 1460+ | 11.5% | 11.5¢ | 88.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $22K
- Liquidity: $10K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Haiku model (4.6+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Haiku" and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 5, while models whose name does not include "Haiku" or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as Claude Haiku 4.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard…
Sources
Related markets
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.