Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
As of Wed, 16 Sep 2026 21:49:24 UTC, Polymarket traders price Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% (97.1%), Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5% (2.8%). The market has $17K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% | 97.1% | 97.1¢ | 2.9¢ |
| Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.8¢ | 97.2¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $17K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe. This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met. The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair? This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026? The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Ope…
Sources
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