Longest GitHub critical incident in October?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 14:16:29 UTC, Polymarket traders price 3-6 hours (61.5%), 6-12 hours (24.0%), 12+ hours (11.5%). The market has $7K in volume and closes on Sun, 01 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-6 hours | 61.5% | 61.5¢ | 38.5¢ |
| 6-12 hours | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
| 12+ hours | 11.5% | 11.5¢ | 88.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $7K
- Liquidity: $6K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”). An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two bracke…
Sources
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