ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 14:25:44 UTC, Polymarket traders price 53.0 to 53.9 (28.0%), 56.0 to 56.9 (24.0%), 54.0 to 54.9 (22.0%). The market has $5K in volume and closes on Mon, 02 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53.0 to 53.9 | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| 56.0 to 56.9 | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
| 54.0 to 54.9 | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| 55.0 to 55.9 | 17.5% | 17.5¢ | 82.5¢ |
| 51.0 to 51.9 | 8.8% | 8.8¢ | 91.1¢ |
| 52.0 to 52.9 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| 59.0+ | 1.1% | 1.1¢ | 98.9¢ |
| 57.0 to 57.9 | 0.5% | 0.5¢ | 99.5¢ |
| 58.0 to 58.9 | 0.4% | 0.4¢ | 99.6¢ |
| <51.0 | 0.2% | 0.2¢ | 99.8¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $5K
- Liquidity: $8K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for October 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on November 2, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufa…
Sources
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