Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:34:45 UTC, Polymarket traders price Pause-Hike-Pause (52.5%), Pause-Hike-Hike (17.0%), Pause-Pause-Pause (10.0%). The market has $7K in volume and closes on Wed, 27 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pause-Hike-Pause | 52.5% | 52.5¢ | 47.5¢ |
| Pause-Hike-Hike | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| Pause-Pause-Pause | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Hike-Hike-Pause | 7.6% | 7.6¢ | 92.3¢ |
| Hike-Hike-Hike | 5.9% | 5.9¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Pause-Pause-Hike | 3.1% | 3.1¢ | 96.9¢ |
| Hike-Pause-Hike | 2.9% | 2.9¢ | 97.1¢ |
| Hike-Pause-Pause | 2.2% | 2.2¢ | 97.8¢ |
| Other | 1.8% | 1.8¢ | 98.2¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $7K
- Liquidity: $72K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Sources
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