Fed Decision in January?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:49:27 UTC, Polymarket traders price No change (59.0%), 25 bps increase (35.5%), 50+ bps increase (1.4%). The market has $92K in volume and closes on Thu, 28 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 59.0% | 59.0¢ | 41.0¢ |
| 25 bps increase | 35.5% | 35.5¢ | 64.5¢ |
| 50+ bps increase | 1.4% | 1.4¢ | 98.7¢ |
| 25 bps decrease | 1.1% | 1.1¢ | 98.9¢ |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.5% | 0.5¢ | 99.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $92K
- Liquidity: $503K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Sources
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