Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of October 20, 2026
As of Thu, 22 Oct 2026 14:24:05 UTC, Polymarket traders price Arkansas (100.0%), Colorado (99.5%), Oklahoma (99.5%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Thu, 22 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | 100.0% | 100.0¢ | 0.1¢ |
| Colorado | 99.5% | 99.5¢ | 0.5¢ |
| Oklahoma | 99.5% | 99.5¢ | 0.5¢ |
| Tennessee | 52.5% | 52.5¢ | 47.5¢ |
| Mississippi | 52.5% | 52.5¢ | 47.5¢ |
| Louisiana | 52.5% | 52.5¢ | 47.5¢ |
| Missouri | 52.5% | 52.5¢ | 47.5¢ |
| Wisconsin | 52.5% | 52.5¢ | 47.5¢ |
| Nebraska | 52.5% | 52.5¢ | 47.5¢ |
| Texas | 52.5% | 52.5¢ | 47.5¢ |
| Nevada | 52.5% | 52.5¢ | 47.5¢ |
| Idaho | 52.5% | 52.5¢ | 47.5¢ |
| Illinois | 47.5% | 47.5¢ | 52.5¢ |
| Indiana | 47.5% | 47.5¢ | 52.5¢ |
| Iowa | 47.5% | 47.5¢ | 52.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Arkansas:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arkansas has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 20, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". Arkansas carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid October 20, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Arkansas market and make no claim about Arkansas's drought. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. The first published release is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions will not be considered. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the…
Sources
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