Claude Sonnet 5.1+: Output Token Price Debut?
As of Tue, 29 Sep 2026 08:07:34 UTC, Polymarket traders price $15+ (0.5%), $20+ (0.3%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Jul 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| $15+ | 0.5% | 0.5¢ | 99.5¢ |
| $20+ | 0.3% | 0.3¢ | 99.8¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model (5.1+) debuts at a standard output token price of at least the specified price, in USD per million tokens. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Sonnet" and be designated as version 5.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.1 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Sonnet 4.6 or Claude Sonnet 5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Sonnet 6, while models whose name does not include "Sonnet" or which retain a version designation below 5.1, such as Claude Sonnet 5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. The debut price is the “Base tokens” output price for default global inference, at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page when the model is first made available to the general public. An introductory price qualifies. Batch, fast mode, cached, US-only inference, and other data-residency prices do not qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies. If no qualifying model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official infor…
Sources
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