Claude 6 released by...?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 18:32:37 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 (92.5%), June 30, 2027 (72.0%), March 31, 2027 (39.0%). The market has $39K in volume and closes on Fri, 31 Dec 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 92.5% | 92.5¢ | 7.5¢ |
| June 30, 2027 | 72.0% | 72.0¢ | 28.0¢ |
| March 31, 2027 | 39.0% | 39.0¢ | 61.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $39K
- Liquidity: $24K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 6 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Claude" and be designated as version 6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of Anthropic's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Fable, Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 6 or higher appears in the name or model identifier. For example, Claude Fable 6, Claude Opus 6, Claude Sonnet 6, or a later version such as Claude Fable 6.1 or Claude 7 would qualify, while models that retain a version designation below 6, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Opus 5, and models that do not carry an explicit version number of 6 or higher in their name or identifier, regardless of how they are described or positioned, will not qualify. A Mythos-branded release available only through Anthropic's verification or trusted-access programs, and task-specific products or restricted lines such as Claude Code, Claude Gov, or Claude Security, will not qualify on their own. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and…
Sources
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