What will the biggest earthquake be on October 23, 2026?

As of Thu, 22 Oct 2026 19:27:01 UTC, Polymarket traders price 6.1 or more (25.5%), 5.5 to 5.6 (17.5%), 5.3 to 5.4 (15.5%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Sat, 24 Oct 2026.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
6.1 or more25.5%25.5¢74.5¢
5.5 to 5.617.5%17.5¢82.5¢
5.3 to 5.415.5%15.5¢84.5¢
Under 5.314.5%14.5¢85.5¢
5.7 to 5.814.5%14.5¢85.5¢
5.9 to 6.012.5%12.5¢87.5¢

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 23, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 23, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 24, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 23, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 24, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

Sources

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