Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 30, 2026

As of Wed, 30 Sep 2026 01:58:34 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 78,000 MW (100.0%), Above 80,500 MW (100.0%), Above 79,500 MW (100.0%). The market has $14K in volume and closes on Wed, 07 Oct 2026.

Updated: Wed, 30 Sep 2026 01:58:34 UTC

Current odds

Outcome	Chance	Yes price	No price
Above 78,000 MW	100.0%	100.0¢	0.0¢
Above 80,500 MW	100.0%	100.0¢	0.0¢
Above 79,500 MW	100.0%	100.0¢	0.0¢
Above 78,500 MW	100.0%	100.0¢	0.0¢
Above 79,000 MW	100.0%	100.0¢	0.0¢
Above 80,000 MW	100.0%	100.0¢	0.0¢
Above 84,500 MW	1.0%	1.0¢	99.0¢
Above 86,500 MW	1.0%	1.0¢	99.0¢
Above 81,000 MW	1.0%	1.0¢	99.0¢
Above 85,000 MW	1.0%	1.0¢	99.0¢
Above 87,000 MW	1.0%	1.0¢	99.0¢
Above 85,500 MW	1.0%	1.0¢	99.0¢
Above 86,000 MW	1.0%	1.0¢	99.0¢
Above 83,000 MW	1.0%	1.0¢	99.0¢
Above 81,500 MW	1.0%	1.0¢	99.0¢

Market details

Venue: Kalshi
Volume: $14K
Liquidity: $14K
Closes: Wed, 07 Oct 2026

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 78,000 MW:

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on September 29, 2026 is above 78,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for the September 29, 2026 operating day. Each value represents ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour. Instantaneous load readings displayed elsewhere by ERCOT will not be considered. Values will be compared as published without rounding. Later revisions, settlement adjustments, or republications will not affect the Expiration Value.

Sources

Source: Kalshi market

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