Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 26, 2026

As of Fri, 25 Sep 2026 21:54:08 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 79,500 MW (100.0%), Above 80,500 MW (100.0%), Above 80,000 MW (100.0%). The market has $20K in volume and closes on Sat, 03 Oct 2026.

Updated: Fri, 25 Sep 2026 21:54:08 UTC

Current odds

Outcome	Chance	Yes price	No price
Above 79,500 MW	100.0%	100.0¢	0.0¢
Above 80,500 MW	100.0%	100.0¢	0.0¢
Above 80,000 MW	100.0%	100.0¢	0.0¢
Above 79,000 MW	100.0%	100.0¢	0.0¢
Above 81,000 MW	99.0%	99.0¢	1.0¢
Above 82,500 MW	7.0%	7.0¢	93.0¢
Above 83,000 MW	5.0%	5.0¢	95.0¢
Above 81,500 MW	3.0%	3.0¢	97.0¢
Above 83,500 MW	2.0%	2.0¢	98.0¢
Above 84,000 MW	1.0%	1.0¢	99.0¢
Above 82,000 MW	1.0%	1.0¢	99.0¢
Above 84,500 MW	1.0%	1.0¢	99.0¢
Above 85,000 MW	1.0%	1.0¢	99.0¢
Above 85,500 MW	1.0%	1.0¢	99.0¢
Above 86,000 MW	1.0%	1.0¢	99.0¢

Market details

Venue: Kalshi
Volume: $20K
Liquidity: $20K
Closes: Sat, 03 Oct 2026

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 79,500 MW:

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on September 25, 2026 is above 79,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for the September 25, 2026 operating day. Each value represents ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour. Instantaneous load readings displayed elsewhere by ERCOT will not be considered. Values will be compared as published without rounding. Later revisions, settlement adjustments, or republications will not affect the Expiration Value.

Sources

Source: Kalshi market

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