Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 22, 2026

As of Wed, 21 Oct 2026 19:17:09 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 59,000 MW (99.0%), Above 59,500 MW (92.0%), Above 60,000 MW (91.0%). The market has $5K in volume and closes on Thu, 29 Oct 2026.

Updated: Wed, 21 Oct 2026 19:17:09 UTC

Current odds

Outcome	Chance	Yes price	No price
Above 59,000 MW	99.0%	99.0¢	1.0¢
Above 59,500 MW	92.0%	92.0¢	8.0¢
Above 60,000 MW	91.0%	91.0¢	9.0¢
Above 60,500 MW	90.0%	90.0¢	10.0¢
Above 61,000 MW	84.0%	84.0¢	16.0¢
Above 61,500 MW	81.0%	81.0¢	19.0¢
Above 62,000 MW	79.0%	79.0¢	21.0¢
Above 62,500 MW	53.0%	53.0¢	47.0¢
Above 63,500 MW	32.0%	32.0¢	68.0¢
Above 64,000 MW	31.0%	31.0¢	69.0¢
Above 63,000 MW	28.0%	28.0¢	72.0¢
Above 64,500 MW	26.0%	26.0¢	74.0¢
Above 65,000 MW	10.0%	10.0¢	90.0¢
Above 66,000 MW	5.0%	5.0¢	95.0¢
Above 65,500 MW	5.0%	5.0¢	95.0¢

Market details

Venue: Kalshi
Volume: $5K
Liquidity: $5K
Closes: Thu, 29 Oct 2026

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 59,000 MW:

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 21, 2026 is above 59,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for the October 21, 2026 operating day. Each value represents ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour. Instantaneous load readings displayed elsewhere by ERCOT will not be considered. Values will be compared as published without rounding. Later revisions, settlement adjustments, or republications will not affect the Expiration Value.

Sources

Source: Kalshi market

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