How many Twitch subscribers will KaiCenat reach this year?

As of Sat, 29 Aug 2026 10:54:38 UTC, Kalshi traders price 600,000 or more (13.0%), 700,000 or more (12.0%), 800,000 or more (11.0%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
600,000 or more13.0%13.0¢87.0¢
700,000 or more12.0%12.0¢88.0¢
800,000 or more11.0%11.0¢89.0¢
1,000,000 or more6.0%6.0¢94.0¢
1,100,000 or more6.0%6.0¢94.0¢
1,200,000 or more6.0%6.0¢94.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 600,000 or more:

If KaiCenat's peak number of active paid Twitch subscribers is at least 600000 at any time before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Active paid Twitch subscribers includes Tier 1 subscriptions (including Prime Gaming), Tier 2, and Tier 3 subscriptions, all counted as single subscriptions without weighting. Gift subscriptions that are currently active are included. Followers, expired subscriptions, channel points, bits, and viewers are NOT included. Only the primary Twitch channel specified at issuance is considered. If the channel is banned or deleted before the deadline, the contract resolves based on the last verifiable peak achieved. The highest subscriber count achieved at any single moment during the period determines resolution. Channel username changes are tracked by unique channel ID and do not affect the market.

Sources

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