Next James Bond film: Actor cast as the villain
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:03 UTC, Kalshi traders price Cillian Murphy (24.0%), Idris Elba (19.0%), Barry Keoghan (14.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Wed, 02 Jan 2030.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cillian Murphy | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
| Idris Elba | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| Barry Keoghan | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Oscar Isaac | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Peter Dinklage | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Rosamund Pike | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Adam Driver | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Cillian Murphy:
If Cillian Murphy performs/ is announced as The Villain in the next James Bond film, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this Contract, Cillian Murphy satisfies the Payout Criterion if either: Official Announcement: Cillian Murphy is officially announced, confirmed, or publicly credited as cast to perform The Villain in the next James Bond film, regardless of whether the performance ultimately occurs; OR Actual Performance: Cillian Murphy appears on stage, on screen, or in recorded content as The Villain in any official performance, showing, or release of the next James Bond film. Additional clarification(s): If the next James Bond film is entirely cancelled or abandoned before any official performance or release occurs, but Cillian Murphy was officially announced in The Villain, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” If multiple people are announced for The Villain (e.g., alternating cast, dual casting), and Cillian Murphy is among them, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” b The Contract may resolve to “No” prior to the Expiration Date if: (a) the next James Bond film is cancelled or completes its run without Cillian Murphy being announced or performing in The Villain, or (b) another person is officially announced as the sole exclusive performer for The Villain.
Sources
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