OpenAI market share this week

As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 14.7% (97.0%), Above 16.5% (83.0%), Above 17.7% (37.0%). The market has $31K in volume and closes on Mon, 02 Nov 2026.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Above 14.7%97.0%97.0¢3.0¢
Above 16.5%83.0%83.0¢17.0¢
Above 17.7%37.0%37.0¢63.0¢
Above 18.4%35.0%35.0¢65.0¢
Above 18.1%30.0%30.0¢70.0¢
Above 18.7%21.0%21.0¢79.0¢
Above 19.9%8.0%8.0¢92.0¢
Above 19.0%8.0%8.0¢92.0¢
Above 21.2%2.0%2.0¢98.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 14.7%:

If OpenAI scores above 14.7% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Oct 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This event will resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Oct 19, 2026. If the named model author’s market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in “Others,” all markets in the event will resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Sources

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