US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?
As of Mon, 02 Nov 2026 00:29:30 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 0.0% (96.0%), Above 0.5% (96.0%), Above 1.0% (93.0%). The market has $63K in volume and closes on Thu, 28 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Above 0.5% | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Above 1.0% | 93.0% | 93.0¢ | 7.0¢ |
| Above 1.5% | 86.0% | 86.0¢ | 14.0¢ |
| Above 2.0% | 76.0% | 76.0¢ | 24.0¢ |
| Above 2.5% | 65.0% | 65.0¢ | 35.0¢ |
| Above 3.0% | 52.0% | 52.0¢ | 48.0¢ |
| Above 3.5% | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| Above 4.0% | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $63K
- Liquidity: $63K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 0.0%:
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.0, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q4 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.
Sources
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