US crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9, 2026

As of Thu, 15 Oct 2026 07:20:01 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 420 million barrels (57.0%), Above 419 million barrels (46.0%), Above 418 million barrels (46.0%). The market has $18K in volume and closes on Wed, 21 Oct 2026.

Updated: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 07:20:01 UTC

Current odds

Outcome	Chance	Yes price	No price
Above 420 million barrels	57.0%	57.0¢	43.0¢
Above 419 million barrels	46.0%	46.0¢	54.0¢
Above 418 million barrels	46.0%	46.0¢	54.0¢
Above 421 million barrels	35.0%	35.0¢	65.0¢
Above 422 million barrels	18.0%	18.0¢	82.0¢
Above 423 million barrels	18.0%	18.0¢	82.0¢
Above 424 million barrels	14.0%	14.0¢	86.0¢
Above 425 million barrels	10.0%	10.0¢	90.0¢
Above 427 million barrels	8.0%	8.0¢	92.0¢
Above 426 million barrels	8.0%	8.0¢	92.0¢
Above 428 million barrels	5.0%	5.0¢	95.0¢
Above 429 million barrels	5.0%	5.0¢	95.0¢
Above 430 million barrels	3.0%	3.0¢	97.0¢

Market details

Venue: Kalshi
Volume: $18K
Liquidity: $18K
Closes: Wed, 21 Oct 2026

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 420 million barrels:

If U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 are strictly above 420 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the U.S. Commercial Crude Oil (Excl. Lease Stock) inventory level reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the week ending Oct 9, 2026. This measure excludes crude oil held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). EIA reports the statistic in thousand barrels. Values stated in millions of barrels will be converted directly from the EIA-reported value. The market will use the first EIA publication for the specified week. Subsequent revisions will not affect resolution.

Sources

Source: Kalshi market

Related markets

DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.